Posted by: Daryl & Wendy Ashby | January 26, 2013

Boomer’s or Bust

blog boomers

Many people believe that equity and house prices will be dragged down by baby boomers as they reduce purchases and sell holdings during their retirement years. This is not a new prediction as I heard the same words being preached back in 1994 by an up-and-coming demographics expert.

He predicted that the mass of the population (baby boomers) would become empty-nesters and feeling the need to downsize or simply escape to a warmer climate as many Snow-Birds have down over the years; they will sell their large family homes and settle into something smaller and easier to manage. This will produce a gluttony or top heavy market for the larger homes which in turn will drive their values down.

But this forecast is based on just one of the many factors that impact equity and house prices, so its predictive power could disappoint. Indeed, the track record of previous demographic-based predictions suggests such a disappointing outcome is likely.

Take Victoria for example, it has and always will have an immigration of retirees moving west from the colder provinces and looking for our “moderate climate” in which to live out the remainder of their lives. Likewise there remains a large contingency of Europeans and Asians moving out to our beautiful frontier. This in itself will generate an ongoing demand which could well dispel the doomsday perdiction.

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